5 REASONS WHY A STAR IS BORN WILL WIN BEST PICTURE

When A Star is Born premiered at the 2018 Venice Film Festival, it took a lightning strike literally hitting the theatre to slow the momentum of Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut. The projector blew out, the cinema went dark for ten minutes, and then…the crowd roared when the musical drama lit up the screen once again. That audience would ultimately give the film an 8-minute standing ovation, an overwhelming response that was repeated at the film’s Toronto Film Festival screening a few weeks later. The film that Variety’s chief critic Owen Gleiberman called, “a transcendent Hollywood film,” was shaping as an Oscar evening lock; it would earn a whopping 8 nominations, including Picture, Actress, Actor, Adapted Screenplay and, of course, Song for ‘Shallow’ a smash hit for the film’s breakout star Lady Gaga.

However, the road to Academy Award triumph grew bumpy – Cooper had missed out on a Best Director nomination; Green Book surged during the voting period; Bohemian Rhapsody became a blockbuster, challenging for the ‘Musical of The Year’ crown; the community of Hollywood Guild’s (Writers, Cinematographers, Editors, etc) kept nominating, but then ignoring, A Star is Born.

The journey of A Star is Born is one of triumph in the face of odds and adversity (remember the lightning?). Which is why, when the Best Picture winner is announced at the 91^st Academy Award ceremony, A Star is Born will be lauded the best film of 2018. Consider these five compelling arguments for the film’s fairy tale finish…    

IT IS A TIMELESS STORY, SYNONYMOUS WITH BOTH OLD AND NEW HOLLYWOOD: The story of the down-on-her-luck singer discovered by a mega-star as his own celebrity is waning has been filmed three times, with each earning big box office and AMPAS adoration. William Wellman’s 1937 original, starring Janet Gaynor and Frederic March, earned seven nominations, winning for Screenplay; George Cukor’s 1954 classic starring Judy Garland and James Mason earned six nominations; and, in 1976, Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson fronted Frank Pierson’s blockbuster, a four-time nominee and winner for Best Song, the Streisand/Paul Williams hit ‘Evergreen’. Cooper succeeded at contemporising a classic Hollywood narrative; old AMPAS voters will respect that.

IT BRIDGES THE GAP BETWEEN THE INDUSTRY, THE CRITICS AND THE PEOPLE: A Star is Born ticks all the boxes across the key segments of a film’s life cycle. Cooper took creative risks by casting the largely untested box office pull of Gaga and brought the film in around the projected budget (US$37million); critics have been almost unanimous in their praise (it currently stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it has been a fixture on most Best of 2018 lists; and, global audiences have turned out to the tune of US$445million (not including the blockbuster soundtrack and with home entertainment revenue to come).

IT DOESN’T HAVE AN ALBATROSS AROUND ITS NECK: In a year that saw some of the dirtiest campaigning in Oscar history, A Star is Born carries with it no ugly baggage. Peter Farrelly’s Green Book came under particular scrutiny, with the director’s past as a serial exposer of his junk (for comedic effect, but still…), the co-writer posting right-wing, racist comments and leading man Viggo Mortensen naively uttering a racially-charged word at a press conference all painting the well-meaning drama in a bad light; Bohemian Rhapsody director Bryan Singer’s alleged sexual indiscretions came to the fore during campaigning; and, BlacKkKlansman’s Spike Lee refused to court favour with the Academy by curbing his outspokenness. By comparison, the adorable public displays of mutual respect and affection between Cooper and Gaga (who will perform ‘Shallow’ live during the ceremony) have endeared them to audiences and voters alike. 

THERE IS A ‘CONFLUENCE OF COINCIDENCE’ AMONG NOMINEES THAT HAS CUT A PATH FOR IT: Green Book is stumbling, the Best Picture trophy it was on track to win now seeming a little to much praise for a film that earned good-not-great notices; Spike Lee will earn the Best Director trophy, taking his ultra-angry film out of the Picture race; Alfonso Quaron will take rightly Foreign Film and Cinematography categories, negating its Best Film slot; Vice, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody are officially rank outsiders. What remains is a face-off between Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite, an arthouse hit that few outside the urban centres have seen (US domestic box office total – US$31million) or one of the biggest critical and commercial hits of the year. With AMPAS desperate to appear relevant to mainstream audiences (remember the ‘Best Popular Film’ fasco?), rewarding a four-quadrant hit like A Star is Born seems a no-brainer.

IT WILL AFFORD SAM ELLIOTT HIS TIME ON OSCAR’S STAGE: Elliott won’t win for Best Supporting Actor – Maheershala Ali for Green Book is the night’s odds-on shoe-in – so a Best Picture nod will get the 74 year-old onstage with his fellow cast and crew to share in the glory. When Cooper utters, “And, oh my God, working with Sam Elliott,” the room will go fucking crazy.